Sunday, April 2, 2017

Brantley's Cactus League 2017 Rehab #s and My Predictions

this is the second part of Michael Brantley's Cactus League Rehab information. this blog contains Michael's numbers, statistics, and game lines from his rehab game appearances. i've also included a section at the end with my predictions for his 2017 regular season. the main focus here is on the spring numbers, but if you're interested in all of the details of Michael's daily hitting progressions during spring, or more specific information about his individual rehab game at bats and plate appearances, or pictures and videos of him, then please read my previous blog: Brantley's Cactus League 2017 Rehab & Game Details.

the format of this post will be easily recognizable to those of you who are longtime readers of my blogs. i've basically set this up like a monthly post by sectioning it into an overview, situational stats, fielding information, number breakdowns, and game lines. on the other hand, if you're new and unfamiliar with my typical layout, you can now begin to get accustomed to how i write my Brantley blogs.

note: Michael played in two minor league rehab games during spring and, just like last year, i could not get all the usual details and data that i like to document. for games of this kind, fans have no access to what's going on unless they physically go to the field that the games are played on. there's no way to watch them on TV or online, there's no way to follow along pitch-by-pitch on a Gameday, and there's no way to listen to Gameday audio because it doesn't exist. the only avenue to get info, if you're not in Arizona, is by
reading whatever live updates the media decides to report either during the games or in their postgame articles.

luckily, since Michael's return to games had been long-awaited, the minor league games in which he appeared drew an abnormal amount of attention. but the people who covered his games were not nearly as comprehensive as i am when it comes to keeping a record of his statistics, and so a lot of my preferred categories were incomplete. as a result, i only did a small breakdown of Michael's total minor league rehab game numbers, and i did not incorporate them in with his Cactus League game numbers. in regards to his simulated games, i did no separate breakdowns; i simply provided what information i could and left it at that.


Cactus League Rehab Overview

spring training came early this year and lasted longer than some would have liked because of the World Baseball Classic, as i mentioned in the Indians Spring 2017 Recap blog. Cactus League games commenced for the Tribe on February 25 and spanned all the way to March 31. (that's 36 games in 35 days. talk about overkill.) the plus side of this outstretched spring, however, was that it actually allowed Michael to go slowly in his rehab progressions and still get some playing time in with his teammates before camp broke. in total, Michael appeared in four simulated games, two minor league games, and eight Cactus League games.

when Tribe games started, Michael was continuing with the live batting practice in the indoor cage part of his biceps tenodesis (surgery) rehab, which he began on February 24. then he advanced to live BP on the field on February 27. he participated in four of those sessions, including one back-to-back, before taking part in simulated games on March 6. sim games were not something that Michael did in his previous rehab during the spring of 2016, but i think having him do them this year was probably another helpful step in gauging how his shoulder/biceps might respond after repetitive swings in potential game situations.

Michael appeared in four simulated games within eight days. because he repeatedly bounced back well and felt good after each game, the medical staff next cleared him to play in games...with the minor league players. he played with the Double A Akron RubberDucks versus the Tulsa Drillers (affiliate of the LA Dodgers) on March 15 and in an intrasquad game on March 18. in these two games, he amassed one double, three RBI, one run, and one walk while batting 2nd, in addition to recording (i believe) one lone putout in 10 innings as the left fielder.

following that, Michael was permitted to finally play in Major League spring games with the Indians. he made his Cactus League debut on March 20, reaching base in all three of his plate appearances. then he played back-to-back games on March 22 and March 23, going hitless in the latter. he continued to feel great, so he was scheduled for another back-to-back set on March 25 and March 26, when he hit his first double and home run of the spring, respectively. lastly, he played in three straight games from March 28-30. he went 5-for-10 with another double, home run, and 2 RBI. Michael also ended his spring on a 5-game hitting streak.

despite Michael looking good and having no complaints, the team was not ready to officially declare that he would be part of the Opening Day roster. although, Terry Francona sort of let the cat out of the bag by saying they were taking 25 guys to Texas and Michael was one of them. but the roster didn't have to be set until April 2 and therefore, as a safety measure, the team held off on the announcement just to be absolutely certain that Michael did not wake up with any soreness or experience a setback over the weekend prior to naming him to the roster. the whole thing came off as a little dramatic, even though it was not intended to be, and left many fans perplexed.

thankfully now today, on our baseball eve, any confusion and brooding about this situation can be eradicated because it was revealed that Michael did in fact make the 25-man OD roster. on top of that, Francona told the media that Michael would be batting 3rd in the Opening Day lineup on April 3 against the Texas Rangers. welcome back! 

Michael missed 28 games of the Indians' 36. but don't forget, there were three days when the team played two games in a split squad affair. consequently, Michael could have only played in a possible 33 games. and no player plays in all the Cactus League games anyway. there are so many guys in camp who need to get their opportunity to practice and show everyone what they can do, that one player playing every spring game would be absurd. so when you take all that into consideration, even with Michael going through his personal rehab, he really didn't miss as many games with the Tribe as it might seem.

in his eight Major League spring games, Michael bat .385 (10-for-26) with four extra base hits, including two doubles and two home runs, and five RBI. he also drew one walk. it's a small sample size and i know spring numbers don't mean a whole lot, but it sure was encouraging to see him do well in his limited time and hit a couple doubles and homers. even better, he did not report any discomfort in the follow-through of his swing! he, like every other player, did not play any complete games and was either lifted for a pinch runner late in games or subbed out defensively after he'd completed his required/pre-determined number of at bats or innings.

maybe i'm jumping the gun here, but i truly don't think he will have any shoulder/biceps problems this year. fingers crossed, Dr. Smooth is back!๐Ÿคž

so there's your little recap of what Michael's spring entailed. if you should desire all the particulars of what he did every single day, then definitely read through the Part 1 companion blog piece i wrote, linked at both the top and bottom of this post.

oh, and how many spring games did i miss? zero. my record of not having missed any of Michael's plate appearances since August 29, 2010, whether in spring training, regular season, or postseason, still stands.๐Ÿ˜


Cactus League Situational Statistics & Other #s

reminder note: i did NOT include Michael's numbers from his four simulated games and two minor league spring games in with my overall Cactus League rehab breakdown because those numbers don't count towards Major League spring stats. plus, i wasn't even able to obtain all of the following situational statistics from those games. (see the note at the beginning of my post as to why not.) therefore, i have calculated Michael's total stats acquired solely from his spring training games with the Indians here and in my breakdowns.


Michael had a hit in 7 of the 8 games he played in his Cactus League rehab and reached base safely in 7 games. he had 1 hitless game and did not reach base in it. Michael had 3 multi-hit games, no three+ hit games, and 1 multi-RBI game. he had at least one RBI in 4 games. he also had 2 go-ahead hits and 2 go-ahead RBI. the Indians were 4-4 in games that Michael played in and 13-12-3 in the games he missed.

additionally, Michael ended his Cactus League rehab with a 5-game hitting streak. during his streak, he bat .412 (7-for-17) with 7 hits, 4 for extra bases, and 15 total bases. he had 3 singles, 2 doubles, 2 home runs, 4 RBI, 3 runs, 1 walk, 1 hit by pitch, 2 GIDP, 3 strikeouts (swinging), and 2 first at bat hits while leaving 5 men on base in 19 plate appearances and 17 at bats.

in Cactus League play, Michael bat .375 (6-for-16) against right-handed pitchers and .400 (4-for-10) against left-handed pitchers.

Michael bat .333 (3-for-9) with 1 RBI in 3 of 16 games at home and .412 (7-for-17) with 4 RBI in 5 of 20 games on the road in spring. he hit safely in 2 of the 3 home games he played in and safely got on base in 2 of them. he had 1 hitless game at home and did not reach base in it. he hit safely in all 5 of the road games he played in, giving him a 5-game road hitting streak, and safely reached base in all 5 as well.

Michael hit .400 (2-for-5) with runners in scoring position, producing 2 RBI in Cactus League play. more specifically, he hit .333 (1-for-3) with RISP and 1 out and .500 (1-for-2) with RISP and 2 outs. he did not have any at bats with RISP and 0 outs.

with 2 outs in an inning, Michael bat .333 (1-for-3) this spring. he hit 1 single and drew 1 walk.

furthermore, he bat .385 (5-for-13) with 4 RBI with runners on base and .385 (5-for-13) with the bases empty. he did not come to bat at all with the bases loaded during his Cactus League games.

in Cactus League rehab, Michael reached base a total of 13 times via hits, fielding errors, hit by pitches, and walks. he scored a total of 4 runs, two of which he attained himself from the two homers that he hit, and was driven in by others just twice. in all fairness, i need to point out that Michael was lifted for a pinch runner in 3 games and would have scored in 2 of them had he not been taken out. so technically, he was left on base 7 times, not 9. still, i anticipate that with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez batting behind him this year, he shouldn't be stranded too much.

Michael's K rate in his Cactus League rehab games was 10.7%. that's on the high side for him, but understandable considering. and if it's any consolation, his three strikeouts were from swings and misses; at least he tried to make contact and didn't just keep the bat on his shoulder as a pitch whizzed by. he may strike out a little more this year until he gets back into the swing of things, literally.

apart from him not playing much in spring, Michael continued to get the majority of his outs by putting the barrel on the ball. in total, he hit 9 groundouts and 4 flyouts compared to his 3 strikeouts. he did not hit any lineouts or pop outs. (like last year, unfortunately, my counts don't equal what's in the stats section on indians.com. they have 11 groundouts and i am baffled as to where the extra two came from. i can't make sense of why there's a difference. i write down every PA of Michael's, including all his outs and how they occurred, so i know my records are accurate.)


In The Field

Michael played a total of 43 innings in left field in 8 Cactus League rehab games. he had 7 putouts, no assists, and no errors, yielding him a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage.

as for Michael's time on defense, he mostly played 5 innings in his games except for one 6-inning game and one 7-inning game. is he going to be ready to play a full 9 in the beginning of the year? maybe not, so be prepared.

i have no outfield assists to highlight here, but according to some of the guys who called the games this spring, Michael made a few difficult catches look rather easy, proving he is indeed a good defender to those who still aren't convinced of such.



now here's a quick breakdown of Brantley's Minor League Spring Rehab Game #s.

in his Minor League Spring Rehab**, Michael had a total of 7 plate appearances and 6 at bats in 2 games. here is how he fared:

1 hit

1 extra base hit

1 double

3 RBI

1 run

1 walk

0 strikeouts

2 total bases


1 putout

10 innings, 2 games

Minor League Spring Rehab batting average: .167 (1-6) (2 games)

**these numbers are also the same as his left field #s. however, his BOP was not the same for each PA because he was allowed to hit in every inning if he wanted. in addition, there might be other information that was not provided to me and so this breakdown is assuredly incomplete.


now i'm going to break down Brantley's Cactus League Rehab Game #s.

i am going to document the leadoff #s vs. the non-leadoff #s combined, 2nd spot #s, and 3rd spot #s, as well as the left field #s, every BOP + left field #s, and overall outfield #s.

Brantley's Cactus League 2017 Rehab #s are as follows:

batting average: .385

OBP: .429

SLG: .692

OPS: 1.121


Michael played in 8 (of *36) Cactus League games in spring training, none complete.

he started and played left field in 8 games, completing none.

he was lifted for a PR in 3 games after 17 innings (5 innings/5 innings/7 innings per game) while still trying to build up the volume of his rehab.

he was subbed out defensively in 5 games after playing a total of 26 innings (5 innings/6 innings/5 innings/5 innings/5 innings per game) while still trying to build up the volume of his rehab.

he did not play in 28 games.

he missed 25 games due to rehabbing.

he got 3 scheduled days off.


Michael bat 2nd in 4 games.

Michael bat leadoff in 1 game.

Michael bat 3rd in 3 games.


Michael played left field in 8 games. (0 complete, 3 lifted for PR: 17 innings, 5 subbed out: 26 innings)


*on three days in spring, there was a split squad, where the team played two games in two separate ballparks. clearly Michael could not play in both games on those dates, so if you wanna get technical, the maximum number of spring games he could have played in was 33 (of the 36).


in Cactus League Rehab, Michael had a total of 28 plate appearances and 26 at bats in 8 games. here is how he fared:

10 hits

4 extra base hits

6 singles

2 doubles

2 home runs

5 RBI

4 runs

1 walk

1 hit by pitch

2 GIDP

3 strikeouts swinging

2 first at bat hits

18 total bases

8 left on base


7 putouts

43 innings, 8 games

Cactus League Rehab batting average: .385 (10-26) (8 games)


now let's break down his numbers based on where he hit in the lineup.


when Michael bat leadoff in Cactus League Rehab, he had a total of 3 plate appearances and 3 at bats in 1 game. breaking down the numbers are as follows:

0 hits

1 left on base


5 innings, 1 game

Cactus League Rehab batting average in the leadoff spot: .000 (0-3) (1 game)
Cactus League Rehab batting average in the leadoff spot while playing left: .000 (0-3) (1 game)


when Michael bat everywhere other than leadoff in Cactus League Rehab, he had a total of 25 plate appearances and 23 at bats in 7 games. breaking down the numbers are as follows:

10 hits

4 extra base hits

6 singles

2 doubles

2 home runs

5 RBI

4 runs

1 walk

1 hit by pitch

2 GIDP

3 strikeouts swinging

2 first at bat hits

18 total bases

7 left on base


7 putouts

38 innings, 7 games

Cactus League Rehab batting average everywhere other than leadoff: .435 (10-23) (7 games)
Cactus League Rehab batting average everywhere other than leadoff while playing left: .435 (10-23) (7 games)


now let's break down the numbers when he was not leading off.


when Michael bat 2nd in Cactus League Rehab, he had a total of 14 plate appearances and 13 at bats in 4 games. breaking down the numbers are as follows:

6 hits

2 extra base hits

4 singles

1 double

1 home run

3 RBI

3 runs

1 walk

1 strikeout swinging

2 first at bat hits

10 total bases

4 left on base


5 putouts

21 innings, 4 games

Cactus League Rehab batting average in the 2nd spot: .462 (6-13) (4 games)
Cactus League Rehab batting average in the 2nd spot while playing left: .462 (6-13) (4 games)


when Michael bat 3rd in Cactus League Rehab, he had a total of 11 plate appearances and 10 at bats in 3 games. breaking down the numbers are as follows:

4 hits

2 extra base hits

2 singles

1 double

1 home run

2 RBI

1 run

1 hit by pitch

2 GIDP

2 strikeouts swinging

8 total bases

3 left on base


2 putouts

17 innings, 3 games

Cactus League Rehab batting average in the 3rd spot: .400 (4-10) (3 games)
Cactus League Rehab batting average in the 3rd spot while playing left: .400 (4-10) (3 games)


when Michael played the outfield in Cactus League Rehab, he had a total of 28 plate appearances and 26 at bats in 8 games. breaking down the numbers are as follows:

10 hits

4 extra base hits

6 singles

2 doubles

2 home runs

5 RBI

4 runs

1 walk

1 hit by pitch

2 GIDP

3 strikeouts swinging

2 first at bat hits

18 total bases

8 left on base


7 putouts

43 innings, 8 games

Cactus League Rehab batting average while playing the outfield: .385 (10-26) (8 games)


now let's break down his numbers specific to where he played in the outfield.


when Michael played left in Cactus League Rehab, he had a total of 28 plate appearances and 26 at bats in 8 games. breaking down the numbers are as follows:

10 hits

4 extra base hits

6 singles

2 doubles

2 home runs

5 RBI

4 runs

1 walk

1 hit by pitch

2 GIDP

3 strikeouts swinging

2 first at bat hits

18 total bases

8 left on base


7 putouts

43 innings, 8 games

Cactus League Rehab batting average while playing left: .385 (10-26) (8 games)


other/overall Cactus League Rehab #s while playing left/outfield: 7 putouts, 0 assists, 0 errors, 1.000 fielding percentage (43 innings, 8 games)



now here are my daily game-by-game notes and numbers for Brantley's Cactus League 2017 Rehab Games. this part of the blog consists of his game lines only. to see all his daily rehab progressions, detailed game information, and interviews, read my separate blog post: Brantley's Cactus League 2017 Rehab & Game Details.

note: Michael missed the first 25 games of spring because he was still rehabbing and not cleared to play in any Cactus League games yet. i wrote "still rehabbing" next to each day he did not play with the Indians and provided a quick update of what phase he was in during his rehab.

Game 0/1, February 25: still rehabbing, took live BP in the indoor cage.

Game 0/2, February 26: still rehabbing, took live BP in the indoor cage.

Game 0/3, February 27: still rehabbing, advanced to live BP on the field.

Game 0/4, February 28: still rehabbing.

Game 0/5, March 1: still rehabbing, took live BP on the field.

Game 0/6, March 2: still rehabbing.

Game 0/7, March 3: still rehabbing, took live BP on the field.

Game 0/8, March 4: still rehabbing, took live BP on the field.

Game 0/9, March 5: still rehabbing.

Game 0/11, March 6 (split squad): still rehabbing, went 0-for-3 in 3 at bats in a simulated game.

Game 0/12, March 8: still rehabbing, went 0-for-3 in 3 at bats in a simulated game.

Game 0/13, March 9: still rehabbing.

Game 0/14, March 10: still rehabbing, went 1-for-3 in 3 at bats in a simulated game and played 3 innings in LF.

Game 0/15, March 11: still rehabbing.

Game 0/16, March 12: still rehabbing.

Game 0/17, March 13: still rehabbing, took seven swings in 3 at bats in a simulated game.

Game 0/18, March 14: still rehabbing.

**this is when Michael began playing in games with the minor league players. until he plays with the Indians in a Cactus League game, he won't have any stats that count for spring training 2017, and so i continued to refer to days that the Indians played as "Game 0" for that reason. speaking of stats, i didn't have access to a minor league Gameday, because there isn't one in spring, so i could only document what i found out online as far as how/what Michael did in these games.**

Game 0/19, March 15: 1-3, 2-run double, run, RBI groundout. AVG: .333
[2nd/LF/GS5]

^^he played in a minor league game with the Double A Akron RubberDucks.^^

Game 0/20, March 16: still rehabbing.

Game 0/22, March 17 (split squad): still rehabbing.

Game 0/24, March 18 (split squad): 0-3, walk. AVG: .167
[2nd/LF/CG5]

^^he played in a minor league intrasquad game.^^

Game 0/25, March 19: still rehabbing.

**this is when Michael began playing in Cactus League games with the Indians.**

Game 1/26, March 20: 2-3, reached on fielding error (first at bat), run, RBI single, single. AVG: .667
[2nd/LF/GS5]

Game 2/27, March 22: 1-3, single. AVG: .500
[2nd/LF/GS5]

Game 3/28, March 23: 0-3. AVG: .333
[leadoff/LF/GS5]

Game /29, March 24: scheduled day off, will play tomorrow.

Game 4/30, March 25: 1-3, hit by pitch, double. AVG: .333
[3rd/LF/GS7]

Game 5/31, March 26: 1-4, 2-run home run (first at bat), run. AVG: 313
[2nd/LF/GS6]

Game /32, March 27: scheduled day off, will play 3 in a row starting tomorrow.

Game 6/33, March 28: 2-3, single (first at bat), double, run, walk. AVG: .368
[2nd/LF/GS5]

Game 7/34, March 29: 2-4, single, home run, run. AVG: .391
[3rd/LF/GS5]

Game 8/35, March 30: 1-3, single, RBI groundout. AVG: 385
[3rd/LF/GS5]

**Michael ends his Cactus League rehab with a 5-game hitting streak and 5-game road hitting streak**

Game /36, March 31: scheduled day off.




My Predictions/Expectations for Michael Brantley's 2017 Season

note: like last year, i am making all these predictions with the assumption that Michael will be healthy this year and not have any setbacks. but, at the same time, i am aware that he may require more off days than usual simply because he has not played a full season in a while and the Indians will likely exercise caution with him in order to ensure that he doesn't aggravate his shoulder or biceps again. so regrettably, it's not practical for me to expect him to set any new career highs or team highs if i already know going into this year that he's not going to have as many chances to bat as others or as he's had in the past when he wasn't returning from surgery. individual accolades, though always exciting, should not be the priority this season. Michael just needs to remain healthy and play an adequate portion of the games on the schedule. and if he does that, he'll still end up with a more than satisfactory stat line for 2017.


Games Played:

might as well start here then. again, i know the team is going to rest him a lot more than the other starters. he could be brought in late in games as a defensive replacement or make more pinch hit appearances than he ordinarily would. and even if Michael says he feels good and does not have any more issues with his shoulder or biceps, i think taking this approach will be the most beneficial to and for him. my prediction: 125 games played in the regular season. (then it's full speed ahead in the playoffs!)

Batting Average:

i expect Michael to be somewhat rusty and despite his sweet, smooth swing, he could need a couple games under his belt before he gets his timing back. that said, if Michael is truly healthy, then he's definitely going to hit. therefore, i have to predict a batting average between .300-.305. think i'm crazy? honestly, it's probably gonna be higher than that, but that's what i'm going with this year. i'll predict something higher next season๐Ÿ˜‰ oh and i do think he will have just enough plate appearances to be a qualifying player, so he should be in the running to lead the team in BA this year as well and possibly reclaim his title. (if you don't recall, he had the highest batting average on the team the last four consecutive years he qualified: 2012-2015.)

Home Runs:

a big question on most fans' minds is [how] will Michael's surgeries affect his power production? i'm not really concerned about it. if he no longer has any pain in the extension of his swing, then his power should be back to what it was in 2014 when he wasn't playing with any injuries. hell, he might even have MORE power now because he's been doing SO much conditioning over the past two years. so i'm going to guess that he hits 15 home runs minimum this year.

RBI:

because i don't know if Michael will be moved around in the batting order or have a steady spot whenever he plays, that makes it a bit difficult for me to try and surmise how many runs he's gonna drive in. for example, if he's batting behind Encarnacion, then i don't think he'll have as many RBI opportunities than if he was hitting 3rd in the lineup in front of EE. reason being, i'm assuming Encarnacion is going to hit a ton of bombs and drive in most of the guys who are on base when he comes to bat. so if Michael bats after him, the bases could be empty quite often. regardless of that, i'm hopeful that Michael can still acquire a minimum of 70 RBI. realistically though, it could be more towards the 80s...

Other Numbers

other numbers i predict for Michael in 2017 are:

doubles: 38

runs: 66 (this is the toughest to predict because we don't know if his BOP will change throughout the duration of the season and we also don't know how the guys who bat behind him will perform.)

walks: 42

stolen bases: 17

total defensive errors: 1

outfield assists: 9

i don't make a prediction for triples anymore because i feel that is the most trivial offensive statistic of them all. while flashy, they aren't something i crave for Michael to achieve. if he hits a few, great, but in my opinion, triples are not imperative to being a well-rounded ballplayer.

don't agree with my predictions? feel free to document your own and/or tell me your reasoning in a comment below!

and if you want your voice to be heard more around here, then check out the polls over on the right side of the page under the About Me sidebar! you can guess how many HR and RBI Michael will have in April, as well as what his April batting average will be, along with how many games the Indians will win in April and for the year.


i want to end this blog now by wishing Michael the best of luck this season. what he's had to withstand since September 2015 was not easy, but he got through it with grace and professionalism. he's had more than enough surgeries now and has undergone the most suitable rehab program possible. if he can't play ball after all that, then just like Terry Francona said, there's nothing more he could have done. so i believe things will go right for Michael in 2017. even if his season starts out with a slow and gradual progression, everything's going to come together eventually. it's time. time to play ball! here's to a normal year!


for all the daily news about Michael during this season, make sure you're following me on twitter @clevelandgirl23. also, don't forget you can join my subscription list to receive email notifications every time i publish a new blog! just enter your address in the box underneath the Blog Archive sidebar over on the upper right side of the page.

finally, thank you for reading this and the previous Cactus League, Part 1 blog! in case you missed it, once again here's the link to my post with all the details about Michael's day-to-day rehab progressions throughout Cactus League play:
Brantley's Cactus League 2017 Rehab & Game Details

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